Time to "Fall" into a Research Question

 Happy October! 

We have completed approximately 83% of 2020, but there's plenty of time to get much more research done.

This week, I discovered I overdid the background quite a bit in my research proposal. Fortunately, I did learn that it will come in helpful for my final paper. 

Due to current circumstances, my research method will consist of literary reviews, data analysis, and trend observation. My goal is to find out if there is a correlation between climate and case numbers of Plague. Many infectious diseases have a seasonality. It is already established that Yersinia pestis thrives in a moderate climate and cannot withstand extremely high or low temperatures. However, I am currently searching to see if warmer climates promote rodent and flea reproduction, which then in turn could lead to a higher rate of spread and human transmission. Initially, I was curious about humidity, but thought that it might not be a huge factor in mammal reproduction. Also, the map I shared last week showed a concentration of cases in the southwest, which typically has relatively low humidity levels. Therefore, temperature became the focal point in the comparison to cases trends. 

What to Anticipate

Here is my research question: Do warmer temperatures increase the amount of Plague cases?

I want to refine it a little still. It is not totally how I want it to be. However, based on this question, here is my hypothesis:

    Moderately warmer temperatures increase success of flea and rodent reproduction, thus increasing the number of infected carriers, which will ultimately lead to higher rates of human Plague cases. 

Also, I would like to touch on the potential outcomes: 

    I believe that my hypothesis will be correct and locations with warmer temperatures will show more Plague cases than locations with colder temperatures. However, another possible outcome could be that the climate has no significant correlation to human infection. Also, the outcome could be opposite of my hypothesis and infection rates might be higher in areas with colder climates. 

This Week

I started the week by looking for outbreaks and studying the typical climate of those areas. One specific place has had multiple, concerning outbreaks of Plague cases; Madagascar. In this island country, winter is considered to between May and October. Temperatures during these months drops and the subtropical climate turns much drier. Summer takes place from November to March, when there is increased temperature, rainfall, and humidity. With that in mind, take a look at the Graph B below and note the months that spikes in cases occur. 

This graph and information is derived from, "Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016" (2019).

Andrianaivoarimanana, V., Piola, P., Wagner, D. M., Rakotomanana, F., Maheriniaina, V.,                                            Andrianalimanana, S., Chanteau, S., Rahalison, L., Ratsitorahina, M., & Rajerison, M. (2019).                      Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998-2016. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 25(2),                             220+. https://link.gale.com/apps/doc/A581023998/SCIC?u=mcc_phoe&sid=SCIC&xid=55ef0462

Somewhat irrelevant, just a reminder that flu season is upon us. Especially during a pandemic, it would be a great time to consider a flu shot! 

Thank you for reading!